ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Annual Rate4.100M4.000M to 4.250M4.040M4.07M
Month over Month-0.7%-2.2%
Year over Year-15.3%-16.6%

Highlights

The NAR data on sales of existing homes in August shows a decrease of 0.7 percent to 4.04 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate after an unrevised 4.07 million units in July. Home resales are down 15.3 percent year-over-year. The August level is below the consensus of 4.10 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasters, but not materially so. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said,"Home sales have been stable for several months, neither rising nor falling in any meaningful way." He continued,"Mortgage rate changes will have a big impact over the short run, while job gains will have a steady, positive impact over the long run."

The supply of homes available for sale remains at 3.3 months' worth in August from July, and is similar to the 3.2 months in August 2022. The median home price is up 0.3 percent to $407,100 in August from the prior month, and up 3.9 percent from a year ago. While it is normal for the median home price to soften in the second half of the year, tight supplies are keeping prices higher. Yun said,""Home prices continue to march higher despite lower home sales." He added,"Supply needs to essentially double to moderate home price gains."

The average number of days on the market is 20 days in August, the same as in July, but up a bit from 16 days in August 2022. In August, 72 percent of homes sold in less than one month, similar to the 74 percent in July.

Sales of single-family homes are down 1.4 percent to 3.600 million units in August while sales of multi-unit homes are up 4.8 percent to 440,000. Higher prices may be driving some potential homebuyers to the more affordable segment of the housing market.

First-time homebuyers accounted for 29 percent of all sales in August, slightly lower than the 30 percent in July and the same as in August 2022.

The Freddie Mac average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.07 percent for August, up from 6.85 percent in July and has risen to 7.15 percent for September.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

After July's subdued 4.07 million annual rate, existing home sales in August are expected to firm slightly to a 4.10 million rate. The National Association of Realtors has been citing lack of available inventory and rising mortgage rates for the slow pace of sales.

Definition

Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.

Description

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.

Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
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