| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate | 3.6% | 2.0% to 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate | 1.7% | 1.5% to 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% |
Highlights
Nonfarm productivity is up 3.5 percent for the second quarter, a downward revision from the preliminary up 3.7 percent. The rise is a little below the consensus of up 3.6 percent in the Econoday survey of forecasters. In the second quarter, output is up 1.9 percent and hours worked are down 1.5 percent. The BLS said,"The decline in hours worked is the first decline since the second quarter of 2020 and was the result of a 1.5-percent decline in average weekly hours; employment was unchanged."
Unit labor costs are up 2.2 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision from up 1.6 percent in the preliminary report. The increase is above the consensus of up 1.7 percent in the Econoday survey of forecasters. Unit labor costs are the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity. Hourly compensation is up 5.7 percent in the second quarter. However, real hourly compensation is up 2.9 percent in the second quarter. Real hourly compensation"takes into account consumer prices" the BLS said.
Unit labor costs are up 2.2 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision from up 1.6 percent in the preliminary report. The increase is above the consensus of up 1.7 percent in the Econoday survey of forecasters. Unit labor costs are the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity. Hourly compensation is up 5.7 percent in the second quarter. However, real hourly compensation is up 2.9 percent in the second quarter. Real hourly compensation"takes into account consumer prices" the BLS said.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The second estimate for second-quarter nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 3.6 percent versus 3.7 percent annual expansion in the first estimate. Unit labor costs, which in the first estimate for the second quarter rose 1.6 percent, are expected to rise at a 1.7 percent rate in the second estimate.
Definition
Productivity measures the growth of labor efficiency in producing the economy's goods and services. Unit labor costs reflect the labor costs of producing each unit of output. Both are followed as indicators of future inflationary trends.
Description
Productivity growth is critical because it allows for higher wages and faster economic growth without inflationary consequences. In periods of robust economic growth, productivity ensures that inflation will remain well behaved despite tight labor markets. Productivity growth is also a key factor in helping to increase the overall wealth of an economy since real wage gains can be made when workers are more productive per hour.
Productivity and labor cost trends have varied over the decades. In the late 1990s, some economists asserted that dramatic productivity advances (based on new technologies) were then allowing the economy to sustain a much faster pace of growth than previously thought possible. Initially, some Fed officials expressed skepticism but later decided that productivity gains had helped boost economic growth and potential GDP growth during the 1990s. That is, the economy could grow faster than previously believed without igniting inflation.
Determining the source of productivity gains has become trickier over the last decade as new technology continues to be incorporated into production - not just in the U.S. but overseas also. Similarly, retraining U.S. workers has been sporadic. Not just low skill jobs are outsourced but now many highly skilled jobs such as programming and accounting are as well. Nonetheless, highly skilled professional jobs have been increasingly difficult to fill during times of high demand. Despite the cross currents in labor market trends, long-term productivity gains are important for maintaining growth in labor income and keeping inflation low.
But in the short-term, output and hours worked can shift sharply just due to cyclical swings in the economy. During the onset of recession, output typically falls before hours worked. This can result in a temporary drop in productivity and a spike in unit labor costs. So, while long-term productivity determines the"speed limit" for long-term growth, one should not be misled by short-term cyclical gyrations in productivity numbers as reflecting the true, underlying trend.
Productivity and labor cost trends have varied over the decades. In the late 1990s, some economists asserted that dramatic productivity advances (based on new technologies) were then allowing the economy to sustain a much faster pace of growth than previously thought possible. Initially, some Fed officials expressed skepticism but later decided that productivity gains had helped boost economic growth and potential GDP growth during the 1990s. That is, the economy could grow faster than previously believed without igniting inflation.
Determining the source of productivity gains has become trickier over the last decade as new technology continues to be incorporated into production - not just in the U.S. but overseas also. Similarly, retraining U.S. workers has been sporadic. Not just low skill jobs are outsourced but now many highly skilled jobs such as programming and accounting are as well. Nonetheless, highly skilled professional jobs have been increasingly difficult to fill during times of high demand. Despite the cross currents in labor market trends, long-term productivity gains are important for maintaining growth in labor income and keeping inflation low.
But in the short-term, output and hours worked can shift sharply just due to cyclical swings in the economy. During the onset of recession, output typically falls before hours worked. This can result in a temporary drop in productivity and a spike in unit labor costs. So, while long-term productivity determines the"speed limit" for long-term growth, one should not be misled by short-term cyclical gyrations in productivity numbers as reflecting the true, underlying trend.
