Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -2.6% | -5.2% to -0.1% | -2.1% | 2.3% |
Highlights
Commercial aircraft orders (nondefense aircraft and parts) fell 43.6 percent in July following jumps of 71.1 and 33.4 percent in the two prior months. Orders for defense aircraft, which is a much smaller category, fell 10.9 percent in July.
Orders for machinery, lifted by mining and energy equipment, were a big positive in July's data, rising 1.2 percent on the month to more than reverse June's 0.5 percent fall. Yet this was not enough to lift core capital goods, a very closely watched reading for indications on business investment and which remains flat, up only 0.1 percent on the month (unrevised from last week's advance data) following a 0.4 percent fall and a 0.4 percent rise in June and May. Orders for information technology as well as for computers and related products, which like machinery feed into the core capital group, fell 0.5 and 2.2 percent respectively. Shipments for core capital goods fell 0.3 percent in July to get fixed business investment off to a slow third-quarter start.
Unfilled orders, fed by aircraft, are a major plus for manufacturing, up 0.5 percent in June on top of 1.8 percent and 0.8 percent builds in the two prior months: These are very big increases and a positive for factory employment. Total July shipments climbed a strong 0.5 percent while inventories remained flat, up 0.1 percent in July following 0.2 percent draws in the two prior months.
Though strength is narrowly focused in aircraft, the nation's factory sector is doing reasoinably well and much better than indications from the host of business surveys including persistent and sizable contraction as indicated by the ISM manufacturing report, data perhaps that aren't fully capturing aircraft's contribution.
Today's results are better than expected and leave Econoday's Consensus Divergence Index at plus 22 to indicate noticeable outperformance of recent US data relative to forecasts.