Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 238K | 230K to 240K | 216K | 228K | 229K |
Initial Claims - Change | -13K | -4K | -3K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 229.25K | 237.50K | 237.75K |
Highlights
The result puts Econoday's Consensus Divergence Index at plus 31, a level indicating tangible outperformance of US data relative to expectations and further underscoring the risk of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September 19-20 meeting.
Continuing claims in lagging data for the August 26 also fell sharply, down 40,000 to 1.679 million to trim the unemployment rate for insured workers back to 1.1 percent where it has mostly held since July.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.