Consumer confidence sagged in September to 103.0, a half point below Econoday's consensus range and the weakest result since late last year. The consumer's assessment of September's jobs market is mixed with a full percentage point more saying jobs are currently plentiful (40.9 percent) but 0.4 points more saying jobs are hard to get (13.6 percent). The latter is high for this reading and will have forecasters limiting their estimates for the month's nonfarm payroll growth.

The 6-month outlook for employment is not mixed, instead showing deterioration. Two percentage points fewer see jobs rising (15.5 percent) and nearly a point more see jobs falling (18.9 percent). This helps exlpain a marked downturn in income expectations: tangibly fewer see increases six months out (16.3 percent versus August's 18.7 percent) and more see a decrease (14.4 versus 11.9 percent).

Eroding confidence in the stock market may also be behind the weaker expectations as bears, for the first time since May, have pulled in front of bulls, at 33.1 versus 31.4 percent. High interest rates are also a factor though fewer this month see rates moving higher (58.2 versus August's 63.5 percent) though noticeably more see rates holding steady (29.6 versus 24.7 percent).

Readings on inflation expectations are stable though buying plans show declines, especially for homes in what no doubt reflects the spike underway in mortgage rates.

These results are largely in line with the consumer sentiment report which has also turned down this month. The weakness, however, isn't alarming though it will be weighing not only on forecasts for employment but also forecasts for consumer spending.

The consumer confidence index is expected to hold nearly steady in September, at a consensus 105.8 versus August's much lower-than-expected 106.1. A downturn in the assessment of the jobs market and expectations for higher interest rates were two key factors in August's results.

The Conference Board's confidence report surveys consumers on their assessments of the labor market, business activity, and their own financial conditions. The survey is conducted by Toluna, an online community platform. (Conference Board and Toluna)

The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

This balance was achieved through much of the nineties and, in large part because of this, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains. It was during the late nineties that the consumer confidence index hit its historic peak, reaching levels that were never matched during the subsequent 2001 to 2007 expansion nor during the long expansion following the Great Recession.

Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it's easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Just note that changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don't move in tandem month by month.