Highlights
In the UK, the ILO unemployment rate for the three months to June is expected to hold at 4.0 percent, while average earnings growth for the same three months is seen climbing to 7.2 percent from 6.9 percent.
Switzerland's producer prices are expected to be unchanged on the month in July, matching their June outcome, and fall 0.5 percent on the year after a 0.6 percent drop the previous month.
The ZEW monthly survey of financial experts in Germany is likely to show mixed sentiment. The current conditions index is expected to erode to minus 62.3 in August versus July's minus 59.5. The expectations (economic sentiment) index is expected to improve slightly to minus 14.4 versus July's minus 14.7.
Among US data, retail sales are expected to rise 0.4 percent on the month in July versus June's lower-than-expected gain of only 0.2 percent in a report that proved subdued throughout. Vehicles and gasoline are not expected to make a difference, with related topical series excluding these components seen up 0.4 percent.
August's Empire State manufacturing index is forecast to come in near breakeven at minus 0.4. This would follow July's plus 1.1 and June's plus 6.6, which, however modest, was the first back-to-back positive showing since late 2021.
US import prices fell 0.2 percent in June, with July's expectations calling for a 0.2 percent rebound. Export prices, which in June dropped 0.9 percent, are expected to edge 0.1 percent higher. This report has consistently pointed to substantial cooling in cross-border price pressures.
Business inventories in June are expected to rise 0.2 percent to match May's 0.2 percent build.
Forecasters expect the housing market index for August, despite a new rise underway in mortgage rates, to hold steady at 56 after edging 1 point higher in July.
In Canada, the focus is on whether inflationary pressures continue to ease after falling four percentage points in seven months through June. Consumer prices in July are expected to edge higher to a 2.9 percent rise on the year after moderating to a lower-than-expected 2.8 percent in June from 3.4 percent in May. The monthly rate is seen rising to 0.3 percent from June's 0.1 percent.
Canadian manufacturing sales in June are forecast to fall back 2.1 percent after jumping 1.2 percent in May and showing improvement since March.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated conversation followed by audience Q&A for APi' Group's annual global controllers conference at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT).
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its policy decision at 2 p.m. in Wellington time on Wednesday (0200 GMT), or 10 p.m. EDT Tuesday. The bank maintained the official cash rate at 5.50 percent in July and, despite stubbornly high inflation (6 percent in the second quarter), is expected to keep policy steady at August's meeting as well.
Last month, the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee agreed that the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future, to ensure that consumer price inflation returns to the 1 to 3 percent annual target range, while supporting maximum sustainable employment. The committee expects inflation to continue declining from its peak. It noted that while employment is above its maximum sustainable level, there are signs of labour market pressures dissipating and vacancies declining.
Switzerland's producer prices are expected to be unchanged on the month in July, matching their June outcome, and fall 0.5 percent on the year after a 0.6 percent drop the previous month.
The ZEW monthly survey of financial experts in Germany is likely to show mixed sentiment. The current conditions index is expected to erode to minus 62.3 in August versus July's minus 59.5. The expectations (economic sentiment) index is expected to improve slightly to minus 14.4 versus July's minus 14.7.
Among US data, retail sales are expected to rise 0.4 percent on the month in July versus June's lower-than-expected gain of only 0.2 percent in a report that proved subdued throughout. Vehicles and gasoline are not expected to make a difference, with related topical series excluding these components seen up 0.4 percent.
August's Empire State manufacturing index is forecast to come in near breakeven at minus 0.4. This would follow July's plus 1.1 and June's plus 6.6, which, however modest, was the first back-to-back positive showing since late 2021.
US import prices fell 0.2 percent in June, with July's expectations calling for a 0.2 percent rebound. Export prices, which in June dropped 0.9 percent, are expected to edge 0.1 percent higher. This report has consistently pointed to substantial cooling in cross-border price pressures.
Business inventories in June are expected to rise 0.2 percent to match May's 0.2 percent build.
Forecasters expect the housing market index for August, despite a new rise underway in mortgage rates, to hold steady at 56 after edging 1 point higher in July.
In Canada, the focus is on whether inflationary pressures continue to ease after falling four percentage points in seven months through June. Consumer prices in July are expected to edge higher to a 2.9 percent rise on the year after moderating to a lower-than-expected 2.8 percent in June from 3.4 percent in May. The monthly rate is seen rising to 0.3 percent from June's 0.1 percent.
Canadian manufacturing sales in June are forecast to fall back 2.1 percent after jumping 1.2 percent in May and showing improvement since March.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated conversation followed by audience Q&A for APi' Group's annual global controllers conference at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT).
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its policy decision at 2 p.m. in Wellington time on Wednesday (0200 GMT), or 10 p.m. EDT Tuesday. The bank maintained the official cash rate at 5.50 percent in July and, despite stubbornly high inflation (6 percent in the second quarter), is expected to keep policy steady at August's meeting as well.
Last month, the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee agreed that the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future, to ensure that consumer price inflation returns to the 1 to 3 percent annual target range, while supporting maximum sustainable employment. The committee expects inflation to continue declining from its peak. It noted that while employment is above its maximum sustainable level, there are signs of labour market pressures dissipating and vacancies declining.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
