| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orders Balance | -13% | -15% | -9% |
Highlights
The CBI's new industrial trends survey found a further contraction in demand in August and at a slightly faster pace than in July. At minus 15 percent, the headline orders index fully reversed the previous period's 6 percentage point bounce and was 2 percentage points short of the market consensus. The measure has been sub-zero every month since last August and is also now just short its long-run average (minus 13 percent).
Past output (minus 19 percent after 3 percent) deteriorated markedly, hitting its weakest level since Covid, while selling price expectations saw their lowest mark since February 2021.
Today's update paints another generally subdued picture of UK manufacturing. However, it is worth noting that so far in 2023, actual output has proved rather stronger, posting gains every month (bar a 0.1 percent dip in May) since November 2022. In any event, the August data trim the UK's ECDI and ECDI-P to 6 and minus 2 respectively. Both gauges show that overall economic activity is running much as forecast.
Past output (minus 19 percent after 3 percent) deteriorated markedly, hitting its weakest level since Covid, while selling price expectations saw their lowest mark since February 2021.
Today's update paints another generally subdued picture of UK manufacturing. However, it is worth noting that so far in 2023, actual output has proved rather stronger, posting gains every month (bar a 0.1 percent dip in May) since November 2022. In any event, the August data trim the UK's ECDI and ECDI-P to 6 and minus 2 respectively. Both gauges show that overall economic activity is running much as forecast.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The headline balance is expected to drop from minus 9 percent in July to minus 13 percent this month.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
