Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Year over Year | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
Highlights
As shown in the earlier report, household consumption was very weak, declining 0.5 percent on the quarter. Gross fixed capital formation also dipped 0.1 percent on the back of a 2.3 percent slump in residential investment which helped to mask a 0.5 percent increase in business spending. With general government consumption up 0.4 percent, final domestic demand subtracted 0.2 percentage points from quarterly growth.
Consequently, the headline advance reflected a 0.4 percentage point boost from inventories and a 0.3 percentage point lift from net foreign trade. Within the latter, exports rose 2.7 percent while imports increased 1.6 percent.
In sum, the domestic economy continued to struggle in the face of high inflation and rising borrowing costs. Looking ahead, recent business surveys have been generally poor and consumer confidence is very low. Third quarter growth is likely to be a good deal weaker. Today's reports put the French ECDI at 13 and the ECDI-P at minus 9. In other words, while overall economic activity is running a little hotter than expected, the real economy is modestly underperforming.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.