ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Quarter over Quarter0.5%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Year over Year0.9%1.0%0.9%0.8%

Highlights

Quarterly economic growth was unrevised in the final look at the April-June period. A 0.5 percent increase in total output was in line with the provisional estimate but followed a weaker revised flat reading in the previous period. Annual growth was 1.0 percent, up from 0.8 percent at the start of the year.

As shown in the earlier report, household consumption was very weak, declining 0.5 percent on the quarter. Gross fixed capital formation also dipped 0.1 percent on the back of a 2.3 percent slump in residential investment which helped to mask a 0.5 percent increase in business spending. With general government consumption up 0.4 percent, final domestic demand subtracted 0.2 percentage points from quarterly growth.

Consequently, the headline advance reflected a 0.4 percentage point boost from inventories and a 0.3 percentage point lift from net foreign trade. Within the latter, exports rose 2.7 percent while imports increased 1.6 percent.

In sum, the domestic economy continued to struggle in the face of high inflation and rising borrowing costs. Looking ahead, recent business surveys have been generally poor and consumer confidence is very low. Third quarter growth is likely to be a good deal weaker. Today's reports put the French ECDI at 13 and the ECDI-P at minus 9. In other words, while overall economic activity is running a little hotter than expected, the real economy is modestly underperforming.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the provisional data leaving a 0.5 percent quarterly gain and a 0.9 percent annual growth rate.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Following the release of the flash estimate about four weeks earlier, the second report incorporates additional data to provide a more accurate reading. This is also revised in the final report, published in the third month after the reference quarter.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
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