Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Year over Year | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
Highlights
The final HICP matched its flat monthly flash print but its yearly rate was nudged a tick higher to 5.1 percent, now 0.2 percentage points short of its final June mark and some 2.1 percentage points above the ECB's target.
The monthly deceleration in the annual CPI rate was broad-based. Inflation in overall manufactured products (3.4 percent after 4.2 percent) declined sharply, only partly reflecting weaker posts for food (12.7 percent after 13.7 percent) and energy (minus 3.7 percent after 3.0 percent). Services (3.1 percent after 3.0 percent) moved in the other direction but the core rate still fell from 5.7 percent in June to 5.0 percent, matching its lowest reading since September 2022.
The slowdown in French headline and core inflation will go down well at the ECB but the central bank will be keeping a particularly wary eye on developments in the service sector. Today's update puts the French ECDI at 4 and the ECDI-P at 15. Economic activity in general continues to run just a little hotter than generally expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.