The labour market performed much as expected last quarter. The mainland jobless rate was unchanged at 6.9 percent, in line with the market consensus and matching the low seen in the first quarter of 2008. It also remained a full percentage point beneath its level just before the arrival of Covid.

However, including overseas territories, unemployment rose 20,000 to 2.207 million. This was its first increase since the second quarter of 2022 and, while relatively small, still large enough to more than offset the previous period's 9,000 drop and lift the jobless rate by a tick to 7.2 percent. Even so, at the same time, the overall employment rate was unchanged at 68.6 percent and so equalled its highest reading since the data were first compiled in 1975. Within this, the full-time rate was also stable at its all-time high of 57.2 percent. Of note, the rate for those aged 55 to 64 rose by 0.7 points over the quarter and by 1.6 points over the year.

In sum, the labour market may be beginning to flatten out but it remains historically tight, a point that will not be wasted on the ECB. Today's report puts the French ECDI at 6 and the ECDI-P at 21. Economic activity in general continues to run slightly ahead of market expectations.

The mainland rate is seen unchanged at 6.9 percent last quarter.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. It is based on the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition of unemployment, which excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are looking for work and are available for work. The report contains data on both total joblessness and just mainland unemployment; the latter is regarded as the more significant.

The data report the number of unemployed persons (quarterly average) for metropolitan France and for metropolitan France plus overseas departments. The metropolitan measure is regarded as the more useful guide.

The data provide a comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs and the unemployment rate. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.

Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the jobs market. If labour markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall.