| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | A$10.5B | A$11.321B | A$11.791B | A$10.497B |
| Imports - M/M | -3.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | |
| Imports - Y/Y | -0.8% | 3.4% | 6.7% | |
| Exports - M/M | -1.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | |
| Exports -Y/Y | -10.7% | -1.8% | -2.9% |
Highlights
Australia's monthly trade surplus widened from a revised A$10.497 billion in May to A$11.321 billion in June. Exports and imports both fell sharply on the month after previous increases.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports fell 1.7 percent on the month in June after increasing 3.2 percent in May. Rural goods (around 15 percent of the total) fell 1.2 percent on the month after increasing 2.1 percent previously, exports of non-rural goods (around 60 percent of the total) fell 3.0 percent after rising 0.6 percent previously, and services exports (around 20 percent) rose 2.1 percent after advancing 1.7 percent previously. Exports fell 10.7 percent on the year in June after dropping 2.9 percent in May.
Seasonally adjusted imports fell 3.9 percent on the month in June, weakening from an increase of 3.5 percent in May. Imports of consumption goods, capital goods, and intermediate and other merchandise goods all fell on the month, while services imports recorded a smaller increase. Total imports fell 0.8 percent on the year in original terms in June after advancing 6.7 percent in May.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports fell 1.7 percent on the month in June after increasing 3.2 percent in May. Rural goods (around 15 percent of the total) fell 1.2 percent on the month after increasing 2.1 percent previously, exports of non-rural goods (around 60 percent of the total) fell 3.0 percent after rising 0.6 percent previously, and services exports (around 20 percent) rose 2.1 percent after advancing 1.7 percent previously. Exports fell 10.7 percent on the year in June after dropping 2.9 percent in May.
Seasonally adjusted imports fell 3.9 percent on the month in June, weakening from an increase of 3.5 percent in May. Imports of consumption goods, capital goods, and intermediate and other merchandise goods all fell on the month, while services imports recorded a smaller increase. Total imports fell 0.8 percent on the year in original terms in June after advancing 6.7 percent in May.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consensus for goods and services trade in June is a surplus of A$10.5 billion versus May's surplus of A$11.8 billion.
Definition
The Merchandise Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
