| Actual | Previous | Revised | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence | 106.8 | 109.1 | 108.9 | |
| Manufacturing Confidence | 97.8 | 99.3 | 99.1 | 98.0 |
| Consumer Confidence | 106.5 | 106.7 | 105.0 |
Highlights
Italian business confidence decreased markedly in August, with Isat's index falling to 106.8 from a downwardly revised 108.9 in July. The softening reverses the slight improvement recorded in July.
While confidence ebbed across all elements of the economy, consumer sentiment fell less dramatically than other sectors, slipping to 106.5 from 106.7.
Manufacturing fell to 97.8 from 99.1 in July, in line with recent weakness of PMIs. Construction was also weak, slumping to 160.2 from 165.2.
The soft numbers suggest that the Italian is economy has yet to rebound after contracting in the second quarter. They also put the Italian ECDI at minus 7 and the ECDI-P at minus 20, both measures signalling a limited degree of overall economic underperformance versus market expectations.
While confidence ebbed across all elements of the economy, consumer sentiment fell less dramatically than other sectors, slipping to 106.5 from 106.7.
Manufacturing fell to 97.8 from 99.1 in July, in line with recent weakness of PMIs. Construction was also weak, slumping to 160.2 from 165.2.
The soft numbers suggest that the Italian is economy has yet to rebound after contracting in the second quarter. They also put the Italian ECDI at minus 7 and the ECDI-P at minus 20, both measures signalling a limited degree of overall economic underperformance versus market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Confidence in the consumer sector is seen slipping from 106.7 in July to 105.0 in August while its manufacturing counterpart is expected to fall from 99.3 to 98.0.
Definition
The Italian statistics office (Istat) conducts business and consumer confidence surveys over the first fifteen and ten working days of each reference month respectively. These provide information about current and expected developments in key sector variables. The largely qualitative results are synthesized for each survey into a single number that provides an overall measure of sentiment. Business confidence reflects the combined results of separate surveys covering manufacturing, retail, construction and services.
Description
If investors want to know how the business or consumer sectors are performing as they evaluate their investment decisions, they can find timely and in depth information in the latest Istat surveys. Although short-term swings can be erratic, changes in trends in confidence can contain very useful information about a sector’s underlying health well in advance of the release of the official data. Moreover, by including some forward-looking components (e.g. manufacturing orders or consumer buying intentions) the Istat surveys can also provide a potential insight into prospective developments.
