| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.0% | -0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Year over Year | 3.6% | 3.0% |
Highlights
Retail sales fell 0.2 percent on the month in June following a marginally smaller revised 0.6 percent gain in May. The drop was the first since February but was small enough to lift unadjusted annual growth from 3.0 percent to 3.6 percent, a 3-month high.
Volumes were rather weaker, posting a 0.7 percent monthly decline, their fourth decline since January. Purchases of food were down 0.2 percent while non-food demand contracted 0.9 percent. On the year, overall unadjusted sales decreased 3.5 percent having dropped 4.6 percent in June.
Today's update puts second quarter volume sales 0.9 percent below their level in the first quarter when they dipped 0.1 percent. The sector has now seen demand contract for four successive quarters and weakness here will have been a key factor behind the provisional 0.3 percent quarterly contraction in April-June GDP. The Italian ECDI now stands at 5 but, at minus 13, the ECDI-P shows that real economic activity is beginning to fall below market expectations again.
Volumes were rather weaker, posting a 0.7 percent monthly decline, their fourth decline since January. Purchases of food were down 0.2 percent while non-food demand contracted 0.9 percent. On the year, overall unadjusted sales decreased 3.5 percent having dropped 4.6 percent in June.
Today's update puts second quarter volume sales 0.9 percent below their level in the first quarter when they dipped 0.1 percent. The sector has now seen demand contract for four successive quarters and weakness here will have been a key factor behind the provisional 0.3 percent quarterly contraction in April-June GDP. The Italian ECDI now stands at 5 but, at minus 13, the ECDI-P shows that real economic activity is beginning to fall below market expectations again.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales are seen flat in June after a 0.7 percent monthly gain in May.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are expressed in nominal terms but volume statistics are also available. Autos are excluded. Only a very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the first report but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is the main producer of official statistics in Italy.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
