Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Year over Year | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
Highlights
A more complete regional picture confirmed that quarterly growth masked an unrevised 0.3 percent contraction in Italy and stagnation in Germany. Consequently, the improvement still comes largely courtesy of France (unrevised 0.5 percent) - where the rate would have been negative but for a jump in net exports - and Spain (unrevised 0.4 percent). Elsewhere, Ireland (3.3 percent) and Lithuania (2.8 percent) had a particularly good period but there were declines in a number of countries, including the Netherlands (0.3 percent) which slid into recession alongside Estonia (also minus 0.3 percent).
In sum, while the headline data look moderately respectable, the underlying picture is rather weaker with domestic demand most likely quite soft. Still, today's report puts the Eurozone ECDI at 4 and the ECDI-P at 9 and so shows overall economic activity running a little ahead of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.