| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job Openings | 9.559M | 9.524M to 9.570M | 8.827M | 9.582M | 9.165M |
Highlights
Data on job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) for July shows the number of job openings down 338,000 to 8.827 million after a downward revision to 9.165 million in June. The July level is the lowest since 8.399 million in March 2021. The July level is well below the consensus of 9.559 million in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
The decrease suggests that businesses are actively cutting current open jobs and/or reducing their hiring plans in the near future. The job openings rate is down 2 tenths to 5.3 percent in July, the lowest since 5.1 in February 2021. The current level of job openings is more in line with normal economic conditions, but still somewhat elevated in the historical context.
The number of new hires declined 167,000 to 5.773 million in July after a small revision lower to 5.905 million in June. This is the lowest since 5.684 million in February 2021. The rate of new hires is 3.7 in July, down 1 tenth from the prior month and the lowest since 3.1 in April 2020.
The number of total job separations is down 218,000 in July to 5.483 million after an upward revision to 5.701 million in June. The number of separations is the lowest since 5.382 million in February 2021. The separations rate is down a tenth to 3.5 in July from 3.6 in June and is the lowest since 3.5 in August 2020.
The number of job quits a subset of separations is down 253,000 to 3.549 million in July after a small revision higher to 3.802 million in June. The quits rate is 2.3 in July, down a tenth from the prior month and the lowest since 2.3 in January 2021. The level of layoffs and discharges is down 4,000 to 1.555 million in July with a rate of 1.0 where it has been for several months.
The labor market is cooling a little faster than expected in terms of reduced job openings, but moderation in hiring is not matching that. Businesses are not laying off current employees and current employees are not changing jobs nearly as much as they have been. So far, the Fed's efforts to tame inflation through restrictive monetary policy seem to be having more-or-less the desired effect of bringing prices down, keeping inflation expectations stable, and bringing supply/demand imbalances in the labor market into better alignment without hurting employment.
The decrease suggests that businesses are actively cutting current open jobs and/or reducing their hiring plans in the near future. The job openings rate is down 2 tenths to 5.3 percent in July, the lowest since 5.1 in February 2021. The current level of job openings is more in line with normal economic conditions, but still somewhat elevated in the historical context.
The number of new hires declined 167,000 to 5.773 million in July after a small revision lower to 5.905 million in June. This is the lowest since 5.684 million in February 2021. The rate of new hires is 3.7 in July, down 1 tenth from the prior month and the lowest since 3.1 in April 2020.
The number of total job separations is down 218,000 in July to 5.483 million after an upward revision to 5.701 million in June. The number of separations is the lowest since 5.382 million in February 2021. The separations rate is down a tenth to 3.5 in July from 3.6 in June and is the lowest since 3.5 in August 2020.
The number of job quits a subset of separations is down 253,000 to 3.549 million in July after a small revision higher to 3.802 million in June. The quits rate is 2.3 in July, down a tenth from the prior month and the lowest since 2.3 in January 2021. The level of layoffs and discharges is down 4,000 to 1.555 million in July with a rate of 1.0 where it has been for several months.
The labor market is cooling a little faster than expected in terms of reduced job openings, but moderation in hiring is not matching that. Businesses are not laying off current employees and current employees are not changing jobs nearly as much as they have been. So far, the Fed's efforts to tame inflation through restrictive monetary policy seem to be having more-or-less the desired effect of bringing prices down, keeping inflation expectations stable, and bringing supply/demand imbalances in the labor market into better alignment without hurting employment.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
June's 9.582 million was near expectations and though down from 9.616 million in the prior month, still pointed once again to strong demand for labor. The consensus for July is 9.559 million.
Definition
The Labor Department's JOLTS report tracks monthly change in job openings and offers rates on hiring and quits. The reporting period lags other employment data including the employment situation report. The word JOLTS stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
Description
Although lagging the release timing of the employment situation report by a month, JOLTS provides additional information on the labor market. The payroll survey in the employment situation report provides numbers on net job changes. JOLTS breaks down labor market data into pre-net changes such as job openings, hires, and separations.
