ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month-0.3%-0.3% to -0.3%-0.5%0.0%-0.4%

Highlights

Pulled lower oil prices, wholesale inventories fell 0.5 percent in the second estimate for June, down from a 0.3 percent draw in the first estimate. In addition, wholesale inventories for May are revised down a tenth to a 0.4 percent draw.

Petroleum inventories fell 3.1 percent in June on top of a 3.3 percent decline in May. Farm products also fell sharply in both months. An offsetting and welcome positive are needed builds for autos, up 1.1 and 1.6 percent in the two months.

Sales at the wholesale level fell 0.7 percent in June following a 0.5 percent decline in May. Sales of nondurables fell 0.9 and 1.5 percent in the two months while sales of durables fell 0.6 percent in June following a 0.7 percent rise in May.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The second estimate for June wholesale inventories is down 0.3 percent, unchanged from the first estimate.

Definition

Wholesale trade measures the dollar value of sales made and inventories held by merchant wholesalers. It is a component of business sales and inventories.

Description

Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a slower rate of growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. Wholesale sales and inventory data give investors a chance to look below the surface of the visible consumer economy. Activity at the wholesale level can be a precursor for consumer trends. In particular, by looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see how fast production will grow in coming months. For example, if inventory growth lags sales growth, then manufacturers will need to boost production lest product shortages occur. On the other hand, if unintended inventory accumulation occurs (i.e. sales did not meet expectations), then production will probably have to slow while those inventories are worked down. In this manner, the inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for tracking the economy.
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