ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month1.7%-0.5% to 2.6%2.3%0.3%0.4%

Highlights

Factory orders rose 2.3 percent in June as a subdued 0.1 percent rise for nondurable goods was offset by an aircraft-driven 4.6 percent jump in durable orders (the durables jump is revised 1 tenth lower from last week's first estimate; the nondurables result is June's first estimate).

Looking at durable details, commercial aircraft orders (nondefense aircraft and parts) surged 69.4 percent month-over-month to $37.1 billion on top of May's 33.4 percent gain. And along with extending gains for related unfilled orders, up 4.2 percent to $571.5 billion, position the sector as a major driver for US manufacturing. Defense aircraft also climbed in June, up 5.5 percent for new orders to $5.5 billion with unfilled orders up 1.0 percent to $72.0 billion.

Orders for core capital goods, which exclude aircraft along with all nondefense orders, is revised 1 tenth lower to only a 0.1 percent gain that, however, followed two prior months of solid gains at 0.4 and 0.7 percent.

Total shipments managed only a 0.1 percent rise in June while inventories were unchanged, both unfavorable indications. However orders are what count the most and the 2.3 percent headline gain together with a substantial 1.8 percent rise for total unfilled orders, this on top of 0.8 percent gains in the two prior months, should be quieting chatter among some that the US economy is heading for recession.

These results together with a slightly lower-than-expected reading in the ISM services index (also released at 10:00 ET) leave Econoday's Consensus Divergence Index at minus 6, near the zero line to indicate that recent US economic data, on net, are coming in within expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Factory orders are expected to rise 1.7 percent in June versus May's 0.3 percent gain. Durable goods orders for June, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report, jumped 4.7 percent on the month.

Definition

Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.

Description

Investors want to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth which is less likely to cause inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data like factory orders, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. The orders data show how busy factories will be in coming months as manufacturers work to fill those orders. This report provides insight to the demand for not only hard goods such as refrigerators and cars, but nondurables such as cigarettes and apparel. In addition to new orders, analysts monitor unfilled orders, an indicator of the backlog in production. Shipments reveal current sales. Inventories give a handle on the strength of current and future production. All in all, this report tells investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy and therefore a major influence on their investments.
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