Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 1.7% | -0.5% to 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
Highlights
Looking at durable details, commercial aircraft orders (nondefense aircraft and parts) surged 69.4 percent month-over-month to $37.1 billion on top of May's 33.4 percent gain. And along with extending gains for related unfilled orders, up 4.2 percent to $571.5 billion, position the sector as a major driver for US manufacturing. Defense aircraft also climbed in June, up 5.5 percent for new orders to $5.5 billion with unfilled orders up 1.0 percent to $72.0 billion.
Orders for core capital goods, which exclude aircraft along with all nondefense orders, is revised 1 tenth lower to only a 0.1 percent gain that, however, followed two prior months of solid gains at 0.4 and 0.7 percent.
Total shipments managed only a 0.1 percent rise in June while inventories were unchanged, both unfavorable indications. However orders are what count the most and the 2.3 percent headline gain together with a substantial 1.8 percent rise for total unfilled orders, this on top of 0.8 percent gains in the two prior months, should be quieting chatter among some that the US economy is heading for recession.
These results together with a slightly lower-than-expected reading in the ISM services index (also released at 10:00 ET) leave Econoday's Consensus Divergence Index at minus 6, near the zero line to indicate that recent US economic data, on net, are coming in within expectations.