| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims - Level | 229K | 225K to 235K | 248K | 227K |
| Initial Claims - Change | 21K | 6K | ||
| 4-Week Moving Average | 231.00K | 228.25K |
Highlights
Insured jobless claims are down 8,000 to 1.684 million in in the July 29 week and point to either people timing out on benefits or leaving the unemployment rolls due to finding work. The insured rate of unemployment for workers eligible for jobless benefits remains at 1.1 percent for the third week in a row. At least through the July 29 week, the labor market is consistently tight.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.