Resale prices continued to climb in June, up 0.9 percent on the month for Case-Shiller's 20-city indexes both adjusted and unadjusted. Year-over-year contraction improved to minus 1.2 percent from minus 1.7 percent with regional differences described by the report as"striking": Chicago up 4.2 percent, Cleveland up 4.1 percent, and New York up 3.4 percent at the top and San Francisco down 9.7 percent and Seattle down 8.8 percent at the bottom. The Midwest in general is the leading sector and the once high-flying West remained the weakest.

Data in this report lag significantly and it won't be until two months from now that the effects of this month's substantial jump in mortgage rates will be felt.

Forecasters see the adjusted 20-city monthly rate rising 1.1 percent in June versus May's 1.0 percent increase. The unadjusted index is expected to rise 0.8 percent on the month but still fall 1.1 percent on the year, the latter would compare with 1.7 percent contraction in May. Case-Shiller prices have exceeded expectations the last four months in a row.

The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.

Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.

Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.