Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Balance | $-190.0B | $-227.8B to $-95.0B | $-220.8B | $-227.8B |
Highlights
Outlays in July rose to $496.9 billion from $480.3 billion in July 2022. Receipts rose to $276.2 billion from $269.3 billion a year ago.
The deficit on a fiscal year to date basis ballooned by $887 billion to $1.613 trillion from $726 billion in the same period of fiscal 2022.
A Treasury official told reporters the interest on the public debt hit a record of $726 billion for the year to date period, up 23 percent from the same period of FY 2022.
Education Department outlays surged by $83 billion or 761 percent in July from the year ago period due to increased subsidies and student loan changes but not loan forgiveness, Treasury said.
Individual tax receipts were $247 billion in July, up 10 percent from the year-ago month. Individual tax refunds surged by 165 percent from a year ago to $23 billion in July. Treasury did not say what accounted for that.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The Federal government borrows money through the issuance of Treasury securities; so higher deficits mean a larger supply of securities and (again, assuming constant demand) lower prices. With notes and bonds, lower prices are equated with higher yields, so in this example, the government borrows money at higher interest rates. That impact ripples across all other interest rate-bearing securities and creates a higher interest-rate environment for stocks, which is bearish.
In addition to following the trend in the budget deficit or surplus, investors can gain valuable insight to the state of the economy by looking at the government's tax receipts. Higher tax receipts lead to an improved deficit situation when economic conditions are strong; conversely, lower tax receipts reflect a sluggish economic environment.