| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orders Balance | -17% | -9% | -15% |
Highlights
The CBI's new industrial trends survey found demand contracting further in July but at slower rate than in June and by less than the market consensus. At minus 9 percent, the headline orders index was up 6 percentage points on the month and at its highest level so far in 2023. It was also its first reading above its long-run average (minus 13 percent) since last December. Moreover, past output moved back above zero and expected prices fell to their lowest level since February 2021.
At the same time, the quarterly survey found business optimism (6 percent after minus 2 percent) posting its best reading since the third quarter of 2021.
Accordingly, today's update paints a notably less bearish picture of UK manufacturing this month than yesterday's flash PMI survey. It also nudges up the UK's ECDI and ECDI-P to minus 5 and 17 respectively. In other words, while overall economic activity is running much as expected, the real economy is proving a little stronger.
At the same time, the quarterly survey found business optimism (6 percent after minus 2 percent) posting its best reading since the third quarter of 2021.
Accordingly, today's update paints a notably less bearish picture of UK manufacturing this month than yesterday's flash PMI survey. It also nudges up the UK's ECDI and ECDI-P to minus 5 and 17 respectively. In other words, while overall economic activity is running much as expected, the real economy is proving a little stronger.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The headline orders balance is seen slipping from minus 15 percent in June to minus 17 percent.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
