Highlights
In Germany's June CPI data, no revision is expected, leaving a 0.3 percent monthly rise and a 6.4 percent annual inflation rate, the latter up from May's final 6.1 percent.
The ZEW monthly survey of financial experts in Germany is likely to show lower sentiment. The index for the current conditions is expected to fall in July to minus 60.0 from June, when it plunged to minus 56.5 from minus 34.8 in May, which was far lower than expected. The economic sentiment (expectations) index is also seen falling to minus 10.2 after rising to minus 8.5 in June from minus 10.7 in May.
The UK labour market report is expected to show the ILO unemployment rate for the three months to May was unchanged at 3.8 percent. Average earnings growth for the three months to May is seen rising to 6.7 from 6.5 percent.
Italy's industrial production in May is expected to rise 0.8 percent on the month following a 1.9 percent fall in April.
In the US, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)'s small business optimism index is forecast to edge up to 89.8 in June from 89.4 in May. It has been below, and often deeply below, the historical average of 98 for 17 months in a row. Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages will continue to limit the ability of many small firms to meet the demand for their products and services, while less severe than last year's experience, the NFIB said last month.
Japanese machinery orders, the key leading indicator of business investment in equipment, is forecast to have posted a second straight rise on the month in May, up 1.0 percent, after rising 5.5 percent rise in April and marking two months of decline. Demand from the non-manufacturing sector remains solid after the government eased its Covid public health rules widely at the end of April while slowing global growth has damped orders from manufacturers. Core private-sector machinery orders, which exclude volatile orders from electric utilities and for ships, are expected to be up just 0.1 percent on the year after falling 7.0 percent in April.
Producer inflation in Japan is expected to have eased for the sixth straight month in June, slowing to 4.4 percent from 5.1 percent in May, as the government's utilities subsidies continued to cap energy costs and commodities markets were tame on slower global growth. The 4.4 percent rate would be the slowest since the 3.8 percent rise in April 2021. On the month, the corporate goods price index is forecast to post a slight 0.2 percent gain after falling 0.7 percent in May.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the policy interest rate unchanged at 5.5 percent after raising it by 25 basis points in a five-to-two vote at its last meeting in May. The bank's monetary policy committee was split between no change or a 25-basis-point hike, a smaller hike than a prior run of 50- and even 75-point moves. Though inflation remains stubbornly high at 6.7 percent in the first quarter, GDP has been slipping, down 0.1 percent and down 0.7 percent on a quarter-over-quarter basis in the first and fourth quarters.
The ZEW monthly survey of financial experts in Germany is likely to show lower sentiment. The index for the current conditions is expected to fall in July to minus 60.0 from June, when it plunged to minus 56.5 from minus 34.8 in May, which was far lower than expected. The economic sentiment (expectations) index is also seen falling to minus 10.2 after rising to minus 8.5 in June from minus 10.7 in May.
The UK labour market report is expected to show the ILO unemployment rate for the three months to May was unchanged at 3.8 percent. Average earnings growth for the three months to May is seen rising to 6.7 from 6.5 percent.
Italy's industrial production in May is expected to rise 0.8 percent on the month following a 1.9 percent fall in April.
In the US, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)'s small business optimism index is forecast to edge up to 89.8 in June from 89.4 in May. It has been below, and often deeply below, the historical average of 98 for 17 months in a row. Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages will continue to limit the ability of many small firms to meet the demand for their products and services, while less severe than last year's experience, the NFIB said last month.
Japanese machinery orders, the key leading indicator of business investment in equipment, is forecast to have posted a second straight rise on the month in May, up 1.0 percent, after rising 5.5 percent rise in April and marking two months of decline. Demand from the non-manufacturing sector remains solid after the government eased its Covid public health rules widely at the end of April while slowing global growth has damped orders from manufacturers. Core private-sector machinery orders, which exclude volatile orders from electric utilities and for ships, are expected to be up just 0.1 percent on the year after falling 7.0 percent in April.
Producer inflation in Japan is expected to have eased for the sixth straight month in June, slowing to 4.4 percent from 5.1 percent in May, as the government's utilities subsidies continued to cap energy costs and commodities markets were tame on slower global growth. The 4.4 percent rate would be the slowest since the 3.8 percent rise in April 2021. On the month, the corporate goods price index is forecast to post a slight 0.2 percent gain after falling 0.7 percent in May.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the policy interest rate unchanged at 5.5 percent after raising it by 25 basis points in a five-to-two vote at its last meeting in May. The bank's monetary policy committee was split between no change or a 25-basis-point hike, a smaller hike than a prior run of 50- and even 75-point moves. Though inflation remains stubbornly high at 6.7 percent in the first quarter, GDP has been slipping, down 0.1 percent and down 0.7 percent on a quarter-over-quarter basis in the first and fourth quarters.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
