ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.2%0.2%0.2%
Year over Year4.5%4.5%4.5%

Highlights

Consumer prices were unrevised in the final data for June. A 0.2 percent monthly increase reduced the annual inflation rate from May's final 5.1 percent to 4.5 percent, equalling its lowest reading since February 2022.

The final HICP also matched its flash estimate and so also still shows a 0.2 percent monthly rise that reduced its yearly rate from 6.0 percent to 5.3 percent, now some 3.3 percentage points above the ECB's target.

The deceleration in the annual CPI rate was largely due to the more volatile categories. In particular, inflation fell sharply in energy (minus 3.0 percent after 2.0 percent) and, less steeply, in food (13.7 percent after 14.3 percent). The rate was flat in services (3.0 percent) and marginally higher in overall manufactured products (4.2 percent after 4.1 percent). Consequently, the key core rate dipped from 5.8 percent in May to 5.7 percent, a 5-month low.

Confirmation of a marked slowdown in French inflation in June will not be enough to stop the ECB tightening again later this month. However, a second successive fall in the core rate at least hints that policy is beginning to work. Today's update puts the French ECDI at 11 and the ECDI-P at 15, both readings showing economic activity in general running a little hotter than expected.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected leaving a 0.2 percent monthly rise and a 4.5 percent annual inflation rate, the latter down from May's final 5.1 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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