ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Public Sector Net Borrowing£27.5B£17.67B£19.22B£15.78B
Ex-Public Sector Banks£28.3B£18.49B£20.05B£16.60B

Highlights

Overall public sector net borrowing (PSNB) was £17.67 billion in June, up from a smaller revised £15.78 billion in May and the third-highest on record for the month. However, it was below the £18.09 billion posted a year ago and well short of the market consensus. Excluding public sector banks (PSNB-X), the shortfall stood at £18.49 billion versus £16.60 billion in May and £18.91 billion in June 2022. Higher tax receipts and a substantial fall in debt interest payable compared with last June were largely offset by increased benefit payments and other costs.

For the financial year to date, the PSNB-X was £54.4 billion, some £12.2 billion more than in the same period last year but £7.5 billion less than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility. Public sector net debt reached £2,596.2 billion, about 100.8 percent of GDP, the highest since the 1960's.

Despite falling significantly below market expectations, borrowing remains substantial. Still, the trend is in the right direction and, by undershooting the OBR forecast, current levels may be seen by the government as providing some leeway for pre-election tax cuts. The June report lifts the UK ECDI to 10 and the ECDI-P to 38, both measures showing economic activity in general also outperforming forecasters' predictions.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The PSNB is seen at £27.5 billion in June, up from £19.22 biilion in May.

Definition

The public sector net borrowing requirement (PSNB) is the difference between the sector's receipts and expenditure and so provides a simple measure of government fiscal policy. In response to the global economic crisis in 2008/09 the UK government introduced a number of measures designed to show the underlying state of public sector finances by omitting temporary distortions caused by financial interventions. It bases its fiscal policy on these measures. To this end, the underlying gauge of government borrowing watched most closely by financial markets is the PSNB-X which takes overall net borrowing (PSNB) but excludes public sector banks.

Description

Changes in public sector finances can be used to determine the thrust of the government's fiscal policy. Generally speaking when the government has a rising deficit (or falling surplus) it is loosening its fiscal stance with a view to boosting economic activity. When its deficit is falling (or surplus rising), fiscal policy is being tightened in order to slow economic growth. However, sometimes changes in government financial positions can be due to factors outside of the government's control and do not signal an explicit shift in policy. This means that great care is needed in interpreting the data.
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