| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | $74.90B | $70.62B | $65.81B |
| Imports - Y/Y | -6.8% | -4.5% | |
| Exports - Y/Y | -12.4% | -7.5% |
Highlights
China's trade surplus in US dollar terms widened from US$65.81 billion in May to US$70.62 billion in June, below the consensus forecast for the surplus to increase to US$74.9 billion. Exports declined 12.4 percent on the year in June after falling 7.5 percent in May, while imports dropped 6.8 percent on the year after a fall of 4.5 percent previously.
Today's update puts the China ECDI at minus 57 and the ECDI-P at minus 60, up from previous levels of minus 64 and minus 70 respectively, indicating that Chinese data are continuing to underperform market expectations.
Today's update puts the China ECDI at minus 57 and the ECDI-P at minus 60, up from previous levels of minus 64 and minus 70 respectively, indicating that Chinese data are continuing to underperform market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
China's trade surplus for June is expected to widen to US$74.90 billion versus May's much lower-than-expected $65.79 billion, a month when exports slowed more sharply than imports.
Definition
The Merchandise Trade Balance is the difference in value between imported and exported goods. Data are denominated both in U.S. dollars and renminbi. A positive number indicates a surplus meaning that more goods were exported than imported.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they also affect currency values in foreign exchange markets. However, the foreign exchange impact is muted here given that the currency is pegged to a basket of currencies and its value is determined daily by the government.
China's growth stems from its exports to the industrialized world. And in turn, global growth is dependent upon Chinese growth, especially since the financial woes of 2008.
Merchandise trade statistics are compiled and published by Customs General Administration (CGA) on a monthly basis. Preliminary estimates are available about 13 days after the reference month with details available within 25 days. Since 1980, the compilation of Customs statistics follows the concepts and definitions of the International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions. Data are released for total imports and exports in the Chinese currency and the U.S. dollar. There are five main categories each for primary and manufactured goods. Detailed information is available by category, destination country, foreign enterprises and domestic region to name a few. Geographically, the data covers the customs territory of the mainland China and excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
China's growth stems from its exports to the industrialized world. And in turn, global growth is dependent upon Chinese growth, especially since the financial woes of 2008.
Merchandise trade statistics are compiled and published by Customs General Administration (CGA) on a monthly basis. Preliminary estimates are available about 13 days after the reference month with details available within 25 days. Since 1980, the compilation of Customs statistics follows the concepts and definitions of the International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions. Data are released for total imports and exports in the Chinese currency and the U.S. dollar. There are five main categories each for primary and manufactured goods. Detailed information is available by category, destination country, foreign enterprises and domestic region to name a few. Geographically, the data covers the customs territory of the mainland China and excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
