| Actual | Previous | Revised | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence | 109.1 | 108.3 | 108.2 | |
| Manufacturing Confidence | 99.3 | 100.3 | 100.2 | 99.8 |
| Consumer Confidence | 106.7 | 108.6 | 107.8 |
Highlights
Overall business confidence recovered some lost ground in July. At 109.1, the headline index was up from a marginally weaker revised 108.2 in June and at its highest level since April. However, it was still short of the 110.8 recorded just before the war began in Ukraine.
In fact, confidence in manufacturing (99.3 after 100.2) extended its downward trend, falling short of the market consensus and hitting its lowest level since January 2021. Still, elsewhere, retail trade (111.2 after 110.5), services (105.6 after 103.7) and construction (166.5 after 162.5) all poste fresh gains.
At the same time, there was a surprisingly marked worsening in consumer confidence (106.7 after 108.6). That said, this only retraced a part of June's gain and still made for the second highest reading so far in 2023.
Today's mixed report puts the Italian ECDI at 16 and the ECDI-P at 23. Both readings indicate that overall economic activity is running somewhat faster than market expectations.
In fact, confidence in manufacturing (99.3 after 100.2) extended its downward trend, falling short of the market consensus and hitting its lowest level since January 2021. Still, elsewhere, retail trade (111.2 after 110.5), services (105.6 after 103.7) and construction (166.5 after 162.5) all poste fresh gains.
At the same time, there was a surprisingly marked worsening in consumer confidence (106.7 after 108.6). That said, this only retraced a part of June's gain and still made for the second highest reading so far in 2023.
Today's mixed report puts the Italian ECDI at 16 and the ECDI-P at 23. Both readings indicate that overall economic activity is running somewhat faster than market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Confidence in manufacturing is seen sliding from 100.3 to 99.8 and in the consumer sector from 108.6 to 107.6.
Definition
The Italian statistics office (Istat) conducts business and consumer confidence surveys over the first fifteen and ten working days of each reference month respectively. These provide information about current and expected developments in key sector variables. The largely qualitative results are synthesized for each survey into a single number that provides an overall measure of sentiment. Business confidence reflects the combined results of separate surveys covering manufacturing, retail, construction and services.
Description
If investors want to know how the business or consumer sectors are performing as they evaluate their investment decisions, they can find timely and in depth information in the latest Istat surveys. Although short-term swings can be erratic, changes in trends in confidence can contain very useful information about a sector’s underlying health well in advance of the release of the official data. Moreover, by including some forward-looking components (e.g. manufacturing orders or consumer buying intentions) the Istat surveys can also provide a potential insight into prospective developments.
