Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Year over Year | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
Highlights
The final HICP similarly matched its flash estimate and so still shows a 0.1 percent monthly gain that trimmed its yearly rate from May's final 8.0 percent to 6.7 percent, still some 4.7 percentage points above the ECB's target.
However, May's deceleration in the annual CPI rate was largely attributable to non-regulated energy where inflation fell from 20.3 percent to 8.4 percent. Other negative effects came from processed food (11.5 percent after 13.2 percent) and transport services (4.7 percent after 5.6 percent). The main upward pressure came from unprocessed food (9.4 percent after 8.8 percent). Consequently, core inflation fell from 6.0 percent to an unrevised 5.6 percent.
The bottom line for the ECB is that Italian underlying inflation remains sticky and far too high.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.