Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Year over Year | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
Highlights
As it is, overall growth masked a quarterly contraction in Italy (0.3 percent) and stagnation in Germany. Consequently, the improvement came largely courtesy of France (0.5 percent), which would have been negative but for a jump in net exports, and Spain (0.4 percent). Elsewhere the picture was very mixed with sizeable gains in the likes of Ireland (3.3 percent) and Lithuania (2.8 percent and no longer in recession) contrasting with falls in Latvia (0.6 percent), and Austria (0.4 percent).
In sum, while the headline data clearly surpassed market expectations, the underlying picture is probably rather weaker and domestic demand was most likely still soft. In fact, today's report puts the Eurozone ECDI at 7 and the ECDI-P at minus 11, the latter showing that overall real economic activity continues to lag the forecasters' predictions.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.