Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
Year over Year | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
Highlights
As usual, no GDP expenditure components were released in the first estimate but the FSO did indicate that household consumption stabilised after a sizeable fall at the start of the year.
Today's update means that the German economy has still not expanded since the third quarter of last year. However, taken together with the data already released from France (0.5 percent) and Spain (0.4 percent), the signs are that the Eurozone as a whole returned to positive growth last quarter. That said, domestic demand remains soft. For Germany, the latest report puts the ECDI at minus 19 and the ECDI-P at minus 31. In other words, economic activity in general is still failing to keep with market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.