The LEI's saga continues, down 0.7 percent for a 15th straight decline pulled lower in June by weak consumer expectations, weak manufacturing new orders (ISM), and lower housing construction. June's rise in jobless claims was also a negative for the index though claims in July have since fallen sharply.

But claims aside, this index has been screaming recession month after month and once again for June; the Conference Board, which produces this index, forecasts a US recession from the coming third quarter to the first quarter of next year:"Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further."

Not forecasting recession at all is Econoday's Consensus Divergence Index which however is in the negative column, though just a bit, at minus 8. The US ECDI in fact has been in positive ground, and sometimes as high as plus 60, for most of the past three months.

The index of leading economic indicators in July is expected to post a 15th straight decline, down a consensus 0.6 percent. This index has been in sharp decline and has long been signaling a pending recession.

The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly -- and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy -- such as recessions and recoveries. More specifically, it was designed to lead the index of coincident indicators, also now published by The Conference Board. Investors like to see composite indexes because they tell an easy story, although they are not always as useful as they promise. The majority of the components of the leading indicators have been reported earlier in the month so that the composite index doesn't necessarily reveal new information about the economy. Bond investors tend to be less interested in this index than equity investors. Also, the non-financial media tends to give this index more press than it deserves.