Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Private Payrolls - M/M | 235,000 | 95,000 to 253,000 | 497,000 | 278,000 | 267,000 |
Highlights
Small companies (1-49 workers) add 299,000 jobs in June and mid-sized companies (50-499 workers) add 183,000 jobs. Large companies (500+) reduce payrolls by 8,000. The slowdown in the economy along with a tighter labor market and slower wage gains is benefiting smaller firms that have had trouble attracting and retaining workers.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of enemies for the Federal Reserve. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus.
By tracking jobs, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.