ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Index46.346.3 to 48.546.348.4

Highlights

The manufacturing PMI ends June at the mid-month flash of 46.3. This is the seventh time in the last eight months that this index has signaled month-over-month contraction in composite activity with June the worst reading so far this year. And judging by what the report calls a"sharper downturn in new orders", this sample is likely to report a sub-50 headline score in July as well.

Backlogs fell"steeply" in June and purchasing activity among the sample contracting"markedly". Output declined and business confidence weakened. One plus, however, is growth in employment as the sample, according to the report, filled long-held vacancies.

The greatest positive in the report is contraction in input costs, the sharpest in over three years. Selling prices held steady.

Watch at the top of the hour for the closely watched ISM manufacturing index where Econoday's consensus is calling for an eighth straight sub-50 score.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The final manufacturing PMI for June is expected to come in at 46.3, unchanged from the mid-month flash to indicate significant contraction.

Definition

Based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies, the Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMI) offers an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across manufacturing industries. The final index for the current month is released roughly a week after the flash.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the Markit PMIs in the U.S. and elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The Markit PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.

Markit originally began collecting monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data in the U.S. in April 2004, initially from a panel of manufacturers in the U.S. electronics goods producing sector. In May 2007, Markit's U.S. PMI research was extended out to cover producers of metal goods. In October 2009, Markit's U.S. Manufacturing PMI survey panel was extended further to cover all areas of U.S. manufacturing activity. Back data for Markit's U.S. Manufacturing PMI between May 2007 and September 2009 are an aggregation of data collected from producers of electronic goods and metal goods producers, while data from October 2009 are based on data collected from a panel representing the entire U.S. manufacturing economy. Markit's total U.S. Manufacturing PMI survey panel comprises over 600 companies.
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