The CBI's June distributive survey shows retail sales volumes falling for the second consecutive month. At minus 9 percent, the headline balance was 1 percentage point firmer than the May contraction mark but 9 percentage points below the CBI's May forecast for the June outturn. While forecasting a return to stability in July, with retail volumes expected to be unchanged, the CBI noted that inflation is putting pressure on household finances, resulting in demand conditions that will remain challenging in the coming months.

Some firmness may be signalled by a shallower drop in orders placed upon suppliers in June (minus 10 percent from minus 30 percent in May). Retailers also reported the firmest stock positions in June since May 2020 (35 percent this month from 25 percent last month), and these are likely to remain elevated relative to expected sales next month (26 percent).

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.

This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.