ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%
Year over Year5.1%5.1%5.1%

Highlights

Consumer prices were unrevised in the final data for May. A 0.1 percent monthly dip cut the annual inflation rate from April's final 5.9 percent to 5.1 percent, its lowest reading since April 2022.

The final HICP also matched its flash estimate and so still shows a 0.1 percent monthly fall that reduced its yearly rate from 6.9 percent to 6.0 percent, some 4.0 percentage points above the ECB's target.

The deceleration in the annual CPI rate was relatively widespread. In particular, inflation fell sharply in energy (2.0 percent after 6.8 percent) and, less steeply, in food (14.3 percent after 15.0 percent). However, more importantly, the rate also cooled in services (3.0 percent after 3.2 percent) and in overall manufactured products (4.1 percent after 4.6 percent). Consequently, the core rate dropped from 6.3 percent in April to 5.8 percent, its first fall since January 2022 and 4-month low.

Confirmation of a marked slowdown in French inflation last month will not be enough to stop the ECB tightening again today. However, the fall in the core rate at least hints that policy is beginning to work and so could have important implications for future policy meetings. Today's update puts the French ECDI at minus 28 and the ECDI-P at minus 19, both readings showing economic activity in general still falling short of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected leaving a 0.1 percent monthly decline and a 5.1 percent annual inflation rate, the latter down from April's final 5.9 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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