ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.3%0.8%-1.1%
Year over Year1.3%-0.1%

Highlights

April industrial production recovered much of the ground it lost in March. Following an unrevised 1.1 percent monthly fall, output rose 0.8 percent, beating the market consensus and, at 1.3 percent, boosting annual growth back above zero. Even so, production was still roughly 5 percent below its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Manufacturing expanded a slightly smaller 0.7 percent versus March when it also fell 1.1 percent. Machinery and equipment rose 1.4 percent, transport equipment 2.0 percent and other manufacturing 0.3 percent. The volatile coke and refined petroleum products category also surged, up 23.6 percent after a strike-impacted 45.2 percent slump previously. Food and drink fell 0.3 percent and, elsewhere, construction was up 0.8 percent.

April's partial recovery puts total goods production 0.6 percent above its average level in the first quarter. However, with the May manufacturing PMI (45.7) very weak and INSEE's business climate survey finding a further deterioration in sector confidence, the second quarter is still likely to struggle. To this end, today's report puts the French ECDI at minus 38 and the ECDI-P at minus 28, both readings showing that economic activity in general is falling well short of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Production is seen up 0.3 percent on the month after a 1.1 percent drop in March.

Definition

Industrial production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Manufacturing is seen as the best guide to underlying developments as some sectors can be very volatile and cause misleadingly large short-term swings in total industrial production.

Description

Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. Like the PPI and the orders data, construction is excluded from the data. This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
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