Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
Year over Year | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% |
Highlights
Consumer spending slowed in the three months to March, increasing 0.2 percent on the quarter after advancing 0.3 percent in the three months to December. Net trade also weakened, making a negative contribution to headline GDP growth of 0.2 percentage points after making a positive contribution of 1.1 percentage points previously. Private investment, however, rebounded after falling for three consecutive quarters, increasing 1.4 percent after dropping 1.7 percent previously.
Today's data cover the period in which officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia continued to raise policy rates aggressively in response to strong inflation pressures. Officials then paused in April before increasing rates again in May and June. They acknowledge that the policy tightening they are implementing has risks for the growth outlook, noting that"the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one". Today's GDP data, showing weak consumer spending and a negative contribution from net trade, are in line with the RBA's concerns about the outlook for both the global economy and household spending.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.