ConsensusActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.3%0.2%0.5%
Year over Year2.4%2.3%2.7%

Highlights

Australia's GDP expanded 0.2 percent on the quarter in the three months to March, slowing from the 0.5 percent increase in the three months to December and below the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.3 percent. This is the weakest quarterly growth since a sharp fall in GDP in the three months to September 2021. GDP rose 2.3 percent on the year, down from 2.7 percent previously and just below the consensus forecast of 2.4 percent.

Consumer spending slowed in the three months to March, increasing 0.2 percent on the quarter after advancing 0.3 percent in the three months to December. Net trade also weakened, making a negative contribution to headline GDP growth of 0.2 percentage points after making a positive contribution of 1.1 percentage points previously. Private investment, however, rebounded after falling for three consecutive quarters, increasing 1.4 percent after dropping 1.7 percent previously.

Today's data cover the period in which officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia continued to raise policy rates aggressively in response to strong inflation pressures. Officials then paused in April before increasing rates again in May and June. They acknowledge that the policy tightening they are implementing has risks for the growth outlook, noting that"the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one". Today's GDP data, showing weak consumer spending and a negative contribution from net trade, are in line with the RBA's concerns about the outlook for both the global economy and household spending.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

First-quarter GDP is expected to rise a quarterly 0.3 percent for year-over-year expansion of 2.4 percent.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy and is usually released early in the third month after the reference period.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
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