Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Change | 0bp | 25bp | 25bp |
Level | 3.85% | 4.10% | 3.85% |
Highlights
Today's decision follows the release last week of monthly CPI data that showed an increase in headline inflation from 6.4 percent in March to 6.8 percent in April, further above the RBA's target range of two percent to three percent. Quarterly data showed inflation at 7.0 percent and stronger wage growth in the three months to March.
Although price pressures have moderated since late last year, the statement accompanying today's decision makes it clear that officials consider inflation remains too high and that they remain concerned about how long it will take to return to the target range. Officials also note that today's decision reflects their assessment that upside risks to the inflation outlook have increased, citing recent wage increases, ongoing tightness in the labour market, and the risk to inflation expectations.
Officials again acknowledged that the policy tightening they are implementing has risks for the growth outlook, noting that"the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one". They again highlighted uncertainties to the outlook for both the global economy and household spending.
Officials judged that the rate hike today will"provide greater confidence that inflation will return to target within a reasonable timeframe" and also advised that"some further tightening of monetary policy may be required" in order to achieve that objective. They also reiterated that they"will do what is necessary to achieve that", depending on incoming data.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The RBA is unique among the central banks - it has two boards with complementary responsibilities. The Reserve Bank Board is responsible for monetary policy and overall financial system stability. The Payments System Board has specific responsibility for the safety and efficiency of the payments system.
The RBA sets an interest rate at which it lends to financial institutions. This interest rate then affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the price of financial assets, such as bonds and shares, and the exchange rate, which affect consumer and business demand in a variety of ways. Lowering or raising interest rates affects spending in the economy.
The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.