ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Economic Sentiment96.095.396.596.4
Industry Sentiment-5.8-7.2-5.2-5.3
Consumer Sentiment-16.1-16.1-17.4

Highlights

Economic sentiment deteriorated again in June. At 95.3, the monthly reading was down 1.1 points from May's revised 96.4 and 0.7 points short of the market consensus. The latest outturn is the weakest since last November and means that sentiment has been below its 100 long-run average since July of last year.

At a sector level, confidence declined in industry (minus 7.2 after minus 5.3), services (5.7 after 7.1), retail trade (minus 6.0 after minus 5.3) and construction (minus 2.0 after minus 0.3). Only consumer sentiment registered an improvement (minus 16.1 after minus 17.4), albeit from a very weak level.

Regionally, the national ESI declined notably in Germany (93.4 after 95.3), but also lost ground in Spain (99.6 after 100.5) and Italy (101.2 after 102.3), while France gained ground for the second month in a row (96.4 after 95.6 and 93.3).

Today's data put the Eurozone ECDI at minus 24 and the ECDI-P at minus 28. Both measures signal a modest degree of overall economic underperformance versus market expectations.


Market Consensus Before Announcement

Economic sentiment in June is expected to fell back to 96.0 from 96.5 in May

Definition

Released by the European Commission, the economic sentiment index (ESI) provides a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment. Results are available for all participating countries and aggregated to the Eurozone and European Union level. The survey is very detailed and offers information on demand, output and inflation.

Description

The survey offers key sentiment data across the European Union and the Eurozone region. Data are available for each country and are aggregated for both the Eurozone and EU. It is conducted by the European Commission rather than Eurostat, the compiler of most other EMU data. The index is a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment in the EU members. Because of its coverage of all the EU countries it is highly regarded in the financial markets as a good indicator of the mood of consumers and industry in each country. It is also normally a good indicator of quarterly GDP.

Confidence indicators are calculated for industry, services, construction, retail trade and consumers. In turn, they are combined into an overall composite number, the economic sentiment indicator (ESI). The data are seasonally adjusted and defined as the difference (in percentage points of total answers) between positive and negative answers. The survey also covers other areas of the economy that are not explicitly included in the ESI. In particular, responses to questions about the inflation outlook are used by the ECB as one means of measuring inflationary expectations.
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