| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% |
Highlights
Unemployment increased 23,000 last quarter to 2.013 million. This followed a smaller revised 18,000 drop in the previous period and was the first rise since the first quarter of 2021. The increase lifted the headline jobless rate from an upwardly revised 7.9 percent at the end of last year to 8.0 percent but the trend remains broadly flat since the middle of 2022.
At the same time, employment increased 104,000 to 23.361 million. Following a 125,000 advance in the fourth quarter, the latest gain means that, outside of the third quarter of last year (minus 3,000), headcount has still risen every quarter since the first quarter of 2021. Full-time jobs were up a solid 92,000 and overall hours worked rose 1.3 percent on the quarter and 3.3 percent versus a year ago.
Looking ahead, the monthly data for April showed the unemployment rate edging down from 7.9 percent in March to 7.8 percent, its lowest reading since April 2020. Today's update puts the Italian ECDI at 5 and the ECDI-P at minus 3, both values being close enough to zero to indicate that economic activity in general is performing much as expected.
At the same time, employment increased 104,000 to 23.361 million. Following a 125,000 advance in the fourth quarter, the latest gain means that, outside of the third quarter of last year (minus 3,000), headcount has still risen every quarter since the first quarter of 2021. Full-time jobs were up a solid 92,000 and overall hours worked rose 1.3 percent on the quarter and 3.3 percent versus a year ago.
Looking ahead, the monthly data for April showed the unemployment rate edging down from 7.9 percent in March to 7.8 percent, its lowest reading since April 2020. Today's update puts the Italian ECDI at 5 and the ECDI-P at minus 3, both values being close enough to zero to indicate that economic activity in general is performing much as expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The monthly data already released point to an 8.0 percent first quarter jobless rate following an upwardly revised 7.9 percent in the previous period.
Definition
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. In addition to the quarterly data, a less detailed monthly report is also available.
Description
Unemployment data are published on a quarterly basis and are very old by the time they are released (they are published about 11 weeks after the end of the reference quarter). The data are published both by the number of persons out of work and by the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is obtained from the ratio between persons seeking employment and the total labor force as measured by the labor force survey (LFS). Italy uses the International Labour Organisation criteria as adopted by Eurostat to compile the data.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall.
