| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Year over Year | 3.2% | 5.8% |
Highlights
Retail sales rose 0.2 percent on the month in April. This was well above the market consensus and followed an unrevised flat reading in March. The increase was the first since January but not enough to prevent unadjusted annual growth from falling from 5.8 percent to 3.2 percent, a 6-month low.
However, rising prices are still supporting nominal sales and volumes fell a further 0.2 percent on the month. This was their third successive decline and left purchases at their weakest level since April 2021, just after the arrival of Covid. Sales of food actually increased 0.6 percent but non-food dropped 0.7 percent, also their third straight decrease.
The April update leaves total volume sales 0.8 percent below their average level in the first quarter, boosting the likelihood of the sector not adding to GDP growth for a fourth consecutive quarter. Still, at 1 and minus 8 respectively, the Italian ECDI and ECDI-P indicate that in general, overall economic activity is performing much as expected.
However, rising prices are still supporting nominal sales and volumes fell a further 0.2 percent on the month. This was their third successive decline and left purchases at their weakest level since April 2021, just after the arrival of Covid. Sales of food actually increased 0.6 percent but non-food dropped 0.7 percent, also their third straight decrease.
The April update leaves total volume sales 0.8 percent below their average level in the first quarter, boosting the likelihood of the sector not adding to GDP growth for a fourth consecutive quarter. Still, at 1 and minus 8 respectively, the Italian ECDI and ECDI-P indicate that in general, overall economic activity is performing much as expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales are expected to slip 0.2 percent on the month after a flat reading in March.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are expressed in nominal terms but volume statistics are also available. Autos are excluded. Only a very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the first report but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is the main producer of official statistics in Italy.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
