Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
Year over Year | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% |
Highlights
Quarterly weakness was largely attributable to consumer spending which, having already contracted 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, fell a further 0.3 percent. The drop here was compounded by a 1.6 percent slide in government final expenditure, only partially offset by a 0.6 percent increase in gross fixed capital formation. Business inventories subtracted 0.4 percentage points having had a zero impact in the fourth quarter.
Growth would have been more negative but for net foreign demand which added some 0.7 percentage points after a 1.2 percentage point boost last time. Even then, this was solely due to the weakness of imports, which were down 1.3 percent as exports dipped 0.1 percent.
Regionally, the headline revision was largely due to Germany where quarterly growth was revised down to minus 0.3 percent. Amongst the other three larger economies, Italy (0.6 percent) and Spain (0.5 percent) still show solid quarterly gains and France (0.2 percent) a more modest advance. Apart from Germany, Estonia, Ireland and Lithuania were all also in recession.
The latest data confirm a very subdued picture of domestic demand across the region as a whole. This may have few implications for how the ECB votes next week, but it should bolster the likelihood of a more rapid deceleration in underlying inflation than the central bank currently anticipates. As such, the peak to key rates may now be somewhat nearer. To this end, the Eurozone ECDI (minus 31) and ECDI-P (minus 14) remain well in negative surprise territory, indicating that economic activity in general continues to fall someway short of what the forecasters predicted.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both typically lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures can put downside pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if inflation remains above the ECB’s near-2 percent target for long enough, worries about the impact of lost competitiveness on the merchandise trade balance could prompt investors to switch to an alternative currency.