ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%
Year over Year6.1%6.1%6.1%

Highlights

Consumer prices were unrevised in May. A final 0.1 percent monthly fall was in line with the provisional estimate and, with base effects strongly negative, weak enough to reduce the annual inflation rate from April's 7.4 percent to 6.1 percent. The headline rate now stands at its lowest level since March last year.

The final HICP also matched its flash reading and so still shows a 0.2 percent monthly drop that cut its yearly rate from 7.6 percent to 6.3 percent, fully 4.3 percentage points above the ECB's target.

The monthly fall in the annual CPI rate was driven by goods where inflation decreased from 9.3 percent to 7.7 percent. However, much of this will reflect falls in energy (2.6 percent after 6.8 percent) and food (14.9 percent after 17.2 percent). That said, there was also a welcome cooling in services (4.5 percent after 4.7 percent). Consequently, core inflation (ex-food and energy), which stood at 5.8 percent in April, eased to 5.4 percent.

Today's data put the German ECDI at minus 1 and the ECDI-P at minus 2. Both measures show that economic activity in general is running much as financial markets expected.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected leaving a 0.1 percent monthly decline and a 6.1 percent annual inflation rate, the latter down from April's final 7.2 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Germany where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Germany's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of the state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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