Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Composite Index | 54.3 | 53.9 | 54.2 |
Services Index | 57.8 | 57.2 | 56.0 |
Highlights
The negative revision to the headline index was wholly attributable to a less robust service sector where the 57.8 flash PMI was revised down to (a still very strong) 57.2. This was still 1.2 points above its final April level and its strongest outturn in just over a year. New business rose for a fourth successive month on the back of solid gains in both domestic and overseas demand. Backlogs were also higher for a fourth straight month and the rate of job creation remained high by historical standards despite easing from April's 17-month high. Firms were again optimistic about the year ahead although confidence fell further from its February high reflecting concerns about inflation, tightening financial conditions and the general economic outlook.
Cost inflation eased to a 2-year low but remained well above its long-run norm and output price inflation was slightly stronger than the 19-month low recorded in April. Indeed, prices climbed at the fastest rate since November 2021.
In sum, the May data are again a very mixed bag and leave a decidedly unbalanced economy. Growth is wholly dependent on services which must raise a question-mark over its medium-term sustainability. Today's update puts the German ECDI at minus 5 and ECDI-P at minus 11. In general, economic activity is performing much as expected.