ConsensusActualPrevious
Composite Index54.353.954.2
Services Index57.857.256.0

Highlights

Economic activity was revised weaker in the final data. The 54.3 flash composite output index was trimmed to 53.9 and so now stands below its final 54.2 print in May. However, the latest reading still suggests a moderately decent period for overall growth.

The negative revision to the headline index was wholly attributable to a less robust service sector where the 57.8 flash PMI was revised down to (a still very strong) 57.2. This was still 1.2 points above its final April level and its strongest outturn in just over a year. New business rose for a fourth successive month on the back of solid gains in both domestic and overseas demand. Backlogs were also higher for a fourth straight month and the rate of job creation remained high by historical standards despite easing from April's 17-month high. Firms were again optimistic about the year ahead although confidence fell further from its February high reflecting concerns about inflation, tightening financial conditions and the general economic outlook.

Cost inflation eased to a 2-year low but remained well above its long-run norm and output price inflation was slightly stronger than the 19-month low recorded in April. Indeed, prices climbed at the fastest rate since November 2021.

In sum, the May data are again a very mixed bag and leave a decidedly unbalanced economy. Growth is wholly dependent on services which must raise a question-mark over its medium-term sustainability. Today's update puts the German ECDI at minus 5 and ECDI-P at minus 11. In general, economic activity is performing much as expected.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the flash data.

Definition

The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global.

Description

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries (including the European Central Bank) use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
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