ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.4%0.7%1.2%
Year over Year8.4%8.7%8.7%

Highlights

Consumer prices were stronger than expected in May. A 0.7 percent monthly gain exceeded the market consensus of 0.4 percent and matched the monthly rise a year ago, keeping the headline annual inflation rate unchanged from April at 8.7 percent.

Contributing to the overall monthly gain and supporting the annual rate were increases in prices for health (up 0.6 percent on the month versus minus 0.6 percent in May last year), communication (0.9 percent versus minus 0.6 percent), recreation and culture (0.7 percent versus 0.3 percent), alcohol and tobacco (0.6 percent versus 0.4 percent), clothing and footwear (1.3 percent versus 1.1 percent). and restaurants and hotels (1.0 percent versus 0.9 percent).

Offsetting these in the annual rate were smaller monthly gains than a year ago in prices for food and alcoholic beverages (0.9 percent versus a 1.5 percent jump in May last year) housing and household services (0.1 percent versus 0.3 percent), and transport (0.4 percent versus 0.6 percent).

The core CPI rate rose 0.8 percent in May versus 0.5 percent in the year ago month, pulling up the annual core rate from April's 6.8 percent to 7.1 percent, the highest rate since March 1992.

Today's report may stir hawkish impulses at the BoE, as inflation pressures appear stubbornly persistent and the annual rate remains far above the bank's medium-term target.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

At 8.7 percent in April, consumer prices did fall sharply versus March's 10.1 percent but not as much as expected. May's expectations are 8.4 percent. The monthly rate is seen rising 0.4 percent after April's 1.2 percent increase.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is an average measure of the level of the prices of goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households in the UK. It is calculated using the same methodology developed by Eurostat, the European Union's statistical agency, for its harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP). The CPI is the Bank of England's target inflation measure.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the UK, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall price level of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.

Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.

For monetary policy, the Bank of England generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index which is calculated using the European Union's Eurostat methodology so that inflation can be compared across EU member states.
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