| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| 3-Months over 3-Months | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Highlights
The economy expanded in April but growth was a little softer than expected. March's unrevised 0.3 percent monthly contraction was followed by a 0.2 percent increase, a tick short of the market consensus but large enough to keep the quarterly rate steady at 0.1 percent. Compared with a year ago, total output was up 0.5 percent after 0.3 percent increase last time and GDP was 0.3 percent above its pre-Covid level in February 2020.
The monthly headline gain was largely attributable to services where output rose 0.3 percent, including a 1.0 percent bounce in consumer facing services. By contrast, goods production was down 0.3 percent (manufacturing also minus 0.3 percent) and construction fell 0.6 percent.
There are not too many surprises in today's report which, with strike activity still an issue, confirms a sluggish trend rate of growth based upon an ongoing recovery in services. This should have few implications for next week's BoE MPC meeting although the positive handle should make raising Bank Rate again a little easier to sell. At now 15 and 17 respectively, the UK's ECDI and ECDI-P remain above zero and indicate overall economic activity running slightly ahead of market expectations.
The monthly headline gain was largely attributable to services where output rose 0.3 percent, including a 1.0 percent bounce in consumer facing services. By contrast, goods production was down 0.3 percent (manufacturing also minus 0.3 percent) and construction fell 0.6 percent.
There are not too many surprises in today's report which, with strike activity still an issue, confirms a sluggish trend rate of growth based upon an ongoing recovery in services. This should have few implications for next week's BoE MPC meeting although the positive handle should make raising Bank Rate again a little easier to sell. At now 15 and 17 respectively, the UK's ECDI and ECDI-P remain above zero and indicate overall economic activity running slightly ahead of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP in the month of April is expected to rise 0.3 percent versus 0.3 percent contraction in March which compared with expectations for a 0.1 percent increase.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The monthly report is based on output data only as the income and expenditure series are not available.
Description
GDP covers all aspects of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. GDP contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. However, the monthly report is quite limited and only provides data on the main output sectors. More detailed information is available in the quarterly reports.
