The volatile reputation of housing starts has been confirmed by May's report. Starts surged 21.7 percent to a 1.631 million annualized rate while permits jumped 5.2 percent to 1.491 million. This is the best level for starts since April last year when interest rates were just beginning to climb; permits are at their best level since October last year.

Expectations for rates to move lower are undoubtedly a fundamental factor behind May's jump, though weather factors and greater availability of construction labor and materials may be at play for the surge in starts.

The breakdown between single- and multi-family units shows outsized gains for both: single-family starts up 18.5 percent on the month and multi-family starts up 27.1 percent. The gain in permits though is tilted to the multi-family side, up 13.2 percent versus a 4.8 percent rise for single-family homes. Greater affordability may help explain the greater rise for multi-families.

Year-over-year comparisons have total starts, at 5.2 percent, in the plus column for the first time since February last year. Total permits are still in the negative column at minus 12.7 percent.

Today's report punctuates recent gains in the housing sector which is picking up steam following the 2022 retracement from the Covid housing boom. The report also lifts Econoday's Consensus Divergence Index to plus 17 to indicate that US data, on net, are noticeably exceeding economic forecasts. Watch for mortgage banker data on tomorrow's calendar and existing home sales on Thursday's calendar.

Housing starts in April bounced higher to a 1.401 million annualized rate from March's 1.371 million. May is expected to hold steady while permits, at 1.416 million in April, are expected to rise to 1.433 million.

Housing starts measure the initial construction of single-family and multi-family units on a monthly basis. Data on permits provide indications of future construction. A housing start is registered at the start of construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building.

Two words: Ripple Effect. This narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as housing starts, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Home builders usually don't start a house unless they are fairly confident it will sell upon or before its completion. Changes in the rate of housing starts tell us a lot about demand for homes and the outlook for the construction industry. Furthermore, each time a new home is started, construction employment rises, and income will be pumped back into the economy. Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers and dryers, furniture, and landscaping are just a few things new home buyers might spend money on, so the economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think of it in terms of more than a hundred thousand new households around the country doing this every month.

Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing starts have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the housing starts data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders, and home furnishings companies. Commodity prices such as lumber are also very sensitive to housing industry trends.

Importance
The housing starts report is the most closely followed report on the housing sector. Housing starts reflect the commitment of builders to new construction activity. Purchases of household furnishings and appliances quickly follow.

Interpretation
The bond market will rally when housing starts decrease, but bond prices will fall when housing starts post healthy gains. A strong housing market is bullish for the stock market because the ripple effect of housing to consumer durable purchases spurs corporate profits. In turn, low interest rates encourage housing construction.

The level as well as changes in housing starts reveals residential construction trends. Housing starts are subject to substantial monthly volatility, especially during winter months. It takes several months to establish a trend. Thus, it is useful to look at a 5-month moving average (centered) of housing starts.

It is useful to examine the trends in construction activity for single homes and multi-family units separately because they can deviate significantly. Single-family home-building is larger and less volatile than multi-family construction. It is more sensitive to interest rate changes and less speculative in nature. The construction of multi-family units can be substantially influenced by changes in the tax code and speculative real estate investors.

Housing construction varies by region as well. The regions of the United States do not all follow exactly the same economic patterns because industry concentration varies in the four major regions of the country. The regional dispersion can mask underlying trends. The total level of housing construction as well as the regional distribution of housing construction is important.

Housing permits are released together with housing starts every month and are considered a leading indicator of starts. In reality, housing permits and starts typically move in tandem each month. However, there are some exceptions. For instance, if permits are issued late in the month, and weather does not permit immediate excavation, then permits might lead starts. For the most part, though, permits are not a good predictor of future housing starts. Incidentally, housing permits (but not starts) are one of the ten components of the index of leading indicators compiled by The Conference Board.