Expected sales growth is climbing but not expected employment growth, the latter perhaps reflecting moderate conditions right now. Year-ahead sales growth rose for the fourth straight month, now at 4.98 percent and likely benefiting from expectations that interest rates are at or near their peak. Yet year-ahead employment backtracked, falling to 4.34 from 4.54 percent. Easing demand for labor is actually a positive for the Federal Reserve which is seeking to rebalance supply and demand in the labor market to limit wage inflation.
Definition
The survey of business uncertainty is a panel survey measuring year-ahead expectations that US firms have about their own sales and employment growth. The sample covers all regions of the US economy, all industries except agriculture and government, and a broad range of firm sizes. Sample size is about 150 responses per month. Readings in Econoday's presentation are seasonally adjusted. The Atlanta Fed publishes this monthly survey in partnership with the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and with Stanford University. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Description
The survey of business uncertainty offers timely updates on how US companies are assessing and reacting to unfolding events including news about the overall economy, about business sentiment and policy developments as well as moves in the stock market and changes in interest rates. Investors can use the data to help forecast economic activity and better understand how business expectations and uncertainty affect sales, employment as well as investment and other economic outcomes.
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