One week does not make a trend. But how about two weeks? Initial claims were expected to reverse what forecasters thought was as an outlying surge in the prior week. But claims didn't come down, instead holding unchanged in the June 10 week at 262,000 after jumping a marginally revised 29,000 in the June 3 week. Unless claims begin to fall back soon, Federal Reserve policy makers may begin to tone down their description of the labor market as"robust".

Continuing claims in data for the June 3 week rose 20,000 to 1.775 million, not enough to raise the unemployment rate for insured workers which holds at a very low 1.2 percent. Yet the outlook for continuing claims, unless initial claims do come back down, is uncertain.

This report together with the 8:30 batch of data leaves Econoday's Consensus Divergence Index in the negative column, though only slightly to indicate that US data are missing expectations by just a bit.

Jobless claims for the June 10 week are expected to ease back to 248,000 versus the prior week's outsized 28,000 jump to 261,000.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.