ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
20-City Adjusted - M/M0.5%0.4% to 0.6%0.9%0.5%0.4%
20-City Unadjusted - M/M1.0%0.8% to 1.5%1.7%1.5%1.6%
20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y-2.3%-2.7% to -1.5%-1.7%-1.1%

Highlights

Resale prices extended their rebound in April, rising 0.9 percent on the month for the 20-city adjusted index and 1.7 percent unadjusted. This is the second straight gain for the adjusted index and the third straight for the unadjusted index, both ending a long string of contraction going back to July last year. Year-over-year, the unadjusted rate is still in the contraction column at minus 1.7 percent.

Miami continues to lead the 20 city breakdown with Chicago in second followed by Atlanta and Charlotte. Seattle and San Francisco, once high flyers, are at the bottom.

Mortgage rates may be high but they may be peaking or may have already peaked which is helping revive the housing market. FHFA data also released at 9:00 a.m. ET this morning likewise beat Econoday's consensus.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters see the adjusted 20-city monthly rate rising 0.5 percent in April to match a 0.5 percent increase in March for unadjusted annual contraction of 2.3 percent versus March contraction of 1.1 percent.

Definition

The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.

Description

Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.

Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
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