The CBI's May distributive trades survey was a good deal weaker than expected. At minus 10 percent, the headline sales balance was fully 20 percentage points short of the market median and down 15 percentage points versus its April mark. With actual sales falling 0.8 percent on the month a year ago, the latest reading should imply a poor month for retailers.

Today's results leave the UK ECDI in positive surprise territory although, at 5, only just. However, the ECDI-P now stands at minus 14, showing that the only significant upside surprises in the data are restricted to inflation. In itself, this is reason for supposing that the BoE will be tightening again in June.

The headline sales balance is seen at 10 percent, up from 5 percent in April.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.

This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.